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How
horse racing odds are computed.
The sport of horse
racing uses a system called Parimutuel odds to determine the payouts on races. This
system was developed in Paris, France as a way to insure a fair betting system
and also allow bookmakers to make a guaranteed profit on a horse race no matter
what the outcome was. A fixed odds system was previously used, and is
also still used by bookmakers at some European tracks. In a fixed odds
system the bookmaker gives the gambler a set price on a horse, say 3:1, and
once that bet is "sold" the price remains fixed for the purchaser. In
the Parimutuel system the odds are determined by the betting pool. In this
system if you make your bet on horse number 7 when the tote board says the
odds are 3:1, you are not guaranteed to get that payout, the odds will rise
and fall prior to the running of the race when the pools are closed.
Betting
Odds and Payouts in Horse Racing
|
Parimutuel
Odds
|
Percentage
of Pool
|
Payout
|
| 1:20 |
95.23% |
$2.10 |
| 1:10 |
90.91% |
$2.20 |
| 1:5 |
83.33% |
$2.40 |
| 2:5 |
71.42% |
$2.80 |
| 1:2 |
66.66% |
$3.00 |
| 4:5 |
55.55% |
$3.60 |
| 1:1 even
money |
50% |
$4.00 |
| 7:5 |
41.67% |
$4.80 |
| 9:5 |
35.71% |
$5.60 |
| 2:1 |
33.33% |
$6.00 |
| 5:2 |
28.57% |
$7.00 |
| 3:1 |
25% |
$8.00 |
| 7:2 |
22.23% |
$9.00 |
| 4:1 |
20% |
$10.00 |
| 9:2 |
18.19% |
$11.00 |
| 5:1 |
16.67% |
$12.00 |
| 10:1 |
9.09% |
$22.00 |
| 20:1 |
4.76% |
$42.00 |
| 50:1 |
1.96% |
$102.00 |
| 100:1 |
0.99% |
$202.00 |
The table to the left
shows the Parimutuel odds, the percentage of the pool that those odds
reflect, and the payout for those odds. For example, if a horse
goes to the post at odds of 7:5 that means that approximately 41% of
the money in the pool has been bet on that horse to win. If he
wins, the payoff would be $4.80 - your original $2 back plus $2.80 in
profit as your share of the losing bets in the pool. The horses
true odds are determined by using this formula:}
( [Payout - wager]
/ 2) or ($4.80-$2.00) / 2 = 1.40 to one.
When handicapping a
horse race it is helpful to think in terms of odds as a percentage for
the potential success of a your pick. If your handicapping of
the race leads you to believe that a particular horse has a 20% chance
of winning, then the fair odds for that horse would be 4:1, anything
more would be a bargain and anything less should lead you to make another
selection for better value.
In this system, the track makes a
profit no matter what the outcome of the race is. The "take out" is
a percentage of the total pool, and the track takes that before any payoffs
are made. The larger the betting pool, the more money the racetrack makes. The
takeout is removed from the pools before odds are shown , so what you are seeing
on the tote board reflects the odds after the track has taken its cut. The
takeout varies by state and goes not only to the racetrack but back to the
host state in the form of taxes, to the horsemen as purses to fund the race,
breed enhancement funds and others.
The takeout
varies by state and by pool. The takeout from the win/place/show
pool is usually the smallest, and the rake gets bigger for exotic bets
(exactas, trifectas,
etc.) and multi-race bets (pick-3, pick-4, and pick-6 wagers).
| Racetrack
Takeout Percentage by Bet Type |
| Racetrack |
WPS |
Exacta |
Tri |
Pick
3 |
Pick
6 |
| Arlington |
0.17 |
0.205 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
| Aqueduct |
0.15 |
0.175 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
| Belmont |
0.15 |
0.175 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
| Churchill
Downs |
0.16 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
| Del Mar |
0.154 |
0.207 |
0.207 |
0.207 |
0.207 |
| Fairgrounds |
0.17 |
0.205 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
| Gulfstream |
0.15 |
0.2 |
0.25 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
| Keeneland |
0.16 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
| Monmouth |
0.17 |
0.19 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
| Santa
Anita |
0.154 |
0.207 |
0.207 |
0.207 |
0.207 |
| Saratoga |
0.15 |
0.175 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
| Woodbine |
0.17 |
0.205 |
0.283 |
0.263 |
0.263 |
As you can see from
the takeout chart on the left, the WPS pools (Win, Place, Show bets)
have the lowest takeouts. At Churchill Downs 16% of the money
bet in the WPS pool is taken out before odds are shown or payouts made. The
takeout for the exotic bets are higher - 19%. The more difficult
the bet is to win, the more money the tracks take. Hitting a pick-6
is difficult enough, but at Woodbine racetrack in Canada they are taking
over 26% of the money bet on the pick-6 before making a payout so take
that into consideration when you are trying to hit the big one! These
takeout percentages change often with new tax rules, so check with your
local racetrack to get the latest and most accurate information.
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